Wednesday, April 18, 2012

A Brief Discussion on CME's/Survival Scenarios

M.>>>DoD has been conducting (quietly) ongoing studies (since reagan) on what are the most likely threats to the continued cohesive existence of of the United States and American civilization. the most likely threats currently are civil war (due to the current political, and therefore economic situation...think white house), and coordinated medusa attack, and a hyper CME.
now the likelihood of civil war will be dependent of whether necessary change in the executive branch and senate occur come november...currently this is listed as the highest likelihood, at about 1:3.
the coordinated medusa attack is currently considered the least likely due to the fact that it would require very high-yield devices, with their yields modulated for maximum WL/band-specific release, and the means to execute at necessary altitude (LoS) for maximum effect. it has been assessed that it would take TWELVE of them set off at 50k ft alt, with necessary tech modulated yield to effectively render 85-90% all e-tech unserviceable. because of the sheer logistics involved, and the nature of the necessities, the likelihood has been assessed at less than 3:19...which is far more likely w/i the next 20-30yrs than say, a mega volcano or unlimited TN exchange.
the other, almost seemingly inevitable likelihood is a hyper CME. the sort of level 5 event that happened in 1859 would render approximately 95% of all unprotected e-tech entirely unservicible w/i hours (of exposure) on the summer hemisphere (and equatorial regions) and w/i about a day on the winter hemisphere (slower towards the winter pole...but high near the pole.) remember, the 1859 event is only listed as a 5 out of 10. it was the convergence of only TWO solar activity cycles.
now, come midsummer 2026 there THREE solar cycles will converge...along with the earth coming into a perihelion, and the north pole being far nearer on its axial angle to the sun. this will likely result in a 7 or 8 out of 10.
the US government is taking this possibility VERY seriously as it has been retrofitting facilities for just such an event, and all new tech must be designed to be EM protected.

and of note, we, as a nation and society/civilization are so tech-dependent, that if all e-tech was rendered useless in a flash, the global economy would crash instantly, and open civil war would ensure shortly thereafter.
if you live in an urban center, go to bed on this one...
how long after the hoodnicks and hoodlums realized that the law no longer could communicate or coordinate, would they not begin their rampage of pillaging, looting, and burning? hours? ...minutes???
your window of escape in places like NYC, LA, DC, chicago, detroit is less than maybe 2 hours...and every car on the road not protected, not retrofitted will be dead and burned out exactly where it stood...meaning main roads, highways, freeways, etc will be impassible by anything more than a motorcycle. better have all your bug-out stash and vehicle well outside. your survival spot and supplies stores better be HUNDREDS of miles away as well.
also realize, all cash not immediately in hand will be lost...but so will all debts!
the fiat currency in hand will become rapidly devalued to the point of worthlessness within the first week...faster in cities, slower in the countryside. all things will be barter goods for goods w/i a month.
so, what you can get ahead of time is what you'll have, and money spent will serve you (at this point) better than money saved.
just some thoughts from someone who has studied well, and understands even better.
God bless and God speed.

  • M.>>> oh, and when deciding where to locate your survival home, use these:
    1-realize the average person can walk at about approximately 3-5mph. taking the minimum 3mph into consideration, even if they walk for only 10hrs per day, that's 30 miles per day.
    that means if you're only 300 miles away from any significant population (say 100k or more) then it will only take 10 days...or less for throngs of desperately hungry, and potentially violent refugees to arrive at your doorstep.
    ...so your best counter is distance. be say, 500 miles away from any city over 100k. given human nature, the throngs will move down the best-paved, easiest routes possible: freeways, and major highways...but also the easier/better paved state highways too, and even county roads. best to have your spot not visible from any paved road, and several (at least 10-15) miles off of any such paved road. also invest in being able to render such an access route impassible bu anything with wheels, and difficult by foot or hooves. then invest in lots of simple impediments (thorns, brambles, bogs, etc) ...and even anti-personnel traps.
    the whole point is you want to make yourself so difficult to reach that it seems hardly worth it to try...especially considering they cannot even see that your stronghold exists!
    remember the survivalist's creed, "stay small, stay unseen, and stay alive."

    2-locate it in a low-visibility, high-defensibility position where an enemy would have to expose himself from any cover for a long distance within your fields of unobstructed fire. this will create a very significant kill zone. anything but the best-armed, best-trained, best-organized potential enemy would be turned back rapidly...and then after they are, you prevent any survivor from escape, lest they relay what was seen/encountered, and they come back in force or communicate such to others.
    of course, if you have highly organized, highly trained, and well armed others...you're best forging and alliance or friendship with them for mutual benefit. but this will be exceedingly unlikely if you've chosen your location well.

    3-locate your survival home close to necessary survival resources. have a dependable aquifer and multiple wells drilled. have a stream that can be dammed up and used to store water (raising the water table, irrigating crops, planting fish, attracting waterfowl and other game...not to mention mechanical and hydroelectric energy potentials), arable soil with a decent growing season, lots of usable stone and aggregate, plenty of wood and fiber, abundant game. the possibility of mineral and fuel resources also come into play.

    remember, prepping can only take you so far.
    TRUE, LONG-TERM SURVIVAL is all about three things...
    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION!

    also, thinking about bringing the community you live in into your planning?
    think again. people do some peculiar things when faced with their own survival. if you're not blood, then the water gets pretty thin.
    and if they're not coming with you when you bug out, then bug out without saying a word to any that aren't coming.
    if you tell anyone, or they find out before you're well and long gone, then the cat is out of the bag...and you've put your family unnecessarily at risk. FAMILY FIRST...beyond that, include no one in your escape that either does not have a critical skillset, or is not able to render hard physical labour. ...and no one who's not trained to fight and finish it
    • D.>>> what is hyper CME? 
    •  
    • A.>>> yeah, you gotta plan not for 30 days, or 90 days...or even 1-2 years. if/when it hits, you'd better have planned for TWENTY OR MORE YEARS! a whole generation will be born and grow up with the conditions of survival and never know the world before.
    • so a cash of practical knowledge...a library, as well as skills can be passed on to them. it will be THEIR world to inherit, and rebuild.
       
    • M>>> D, a CME is a coronal mass emission.
      CMEs hit like earthquakes in that there's a 'pulse' that travels the speed of light, and hits the moment we can see it. the stronger the CME, the further the pulse penetrates the magnetosphere.
      a lever 3-4, only causes auroras. a level 5-6 will shut satellites into 'safe' mode and will cause a lot of radio noise. a level 7-8 will quite possibly knock planes out the sky, and burn out e-tech in high altitude locations. satellites will go down, and not come back up. a 9-10, well...it could possibly cause radiation sickness/burns at sea level if you were outside during the day when it hit.
      but the pulse, tends to be very short lived.

      following the 'pulse' is the wave...and it is the wave that usually does most of the significant damage. with a 3-4, its enough that it can cause surges in the power grid, and blackouts where the grid is weak. it can also cause disorientation in animals relying on magnetic guidance. it will cause radio interference, and digital signals will drop a lot.
      a 5-6 will burn out most electronic, and many electrical devices unprotected...esp at altitude, the poles, or the regions most directly exposed to the sun (summer hemisphere and equator). any EM-sensitive device (like electronics components) exposed, whether on or off, plugged in or not will be rendered useless. this is what the 1859 event would do now. it was strong enough, and coils and spools of copper wire heated to the point they began to glow and melt! and yes, the power grid would go down, and it would be YEARS before it came up again. all of the replacement parts would be useless, as well as the factories that made them.
      in the case of a 7-8, 95% of all things electrical, not protected, would become scrap. there'd also be enough saturation of the lower troposphere that those exposed for long during the daytime, summerside sunlight could receive radiation burns, and cancer could potentially become and issue, as well as sterility.
      as for a 9-10? ...well, let's just call that one an ELE.
      a hot theory posed by some high school kid in the later 1980s (near seattle) said that it was in fact a massive, extended hyper CME that caused both the permian and KT extinction events. this has gained much SCIENTIFIC credibility based on actual EVIDENCE found.

      a level 9-10 event tends to occur every 60-70mil years, and by that, explains the timing of almost ALL major extintion event. the last one occurred 65mil years ago. it also involves the earth reach a maximum perihelic position as well. a level 9-10 event can last for hundreds of years.
      a level 7-8 event tends to occur every 10k years...so we're actually overdue. these cause minor extinction events as well. a big sign that the earth might be going into a one of these is an rapid increase in the global mean temperature, and melting of the ice caps. the last one such event resulted in the average temperature of the earth being 12f higher than we are today! the only ice cap on earth was at the south pole! such events can last years.
      level 5-6 events happen every 120-150 years...so again we're overdue. the last such was the 1859 event, and they last for months.
      a level 3-4 event tends to last from hours to days, and happen relatively often.

      the difference in lapse between the pulse and the wave is mostly determined by 2 factors: 1-the distance the sun is from the earth, and 2-the strength of the actual solar eruption. these two factors combine to give us the apparant magnitude or level of the CME event.
      but also, the lapse time gives us a window in which the prepper has to become a survivalist, and escape...if he/she knows how to read the signs.
      if, for example, you see LD cell calls drop and not come back up w/i 30-60min; satellite feeds on TV stations go down, and not come back; the inet lose its WW connection and not come back...then safely we can assess the likelihood of a level 5 or above wave is coming w/i the next 8-12hrs.
      ...so, you either need to be at your survival spot before then, or in a retrofitted/EM shielded vehicle, well outside of any populated area on low-traffic roads in open country en route.

      and also, ONLY let people not traveling with you know as you leave, if they are to join you en route. otherwise tell no one else until you're well and long gone, so as the word of mouth doesn't impede your escape. in any case, tell NO ONE not to join you where (even the region) where you're going. information is a weapon effectively and easily wielded against you.